Evidence-appraisal glossary
Posterior probability
In Bayesian analysis, the posterior probability is the updated probability of a hypothesis or parameter after the prior has been combined with the observed data.
Also called: posterior.
It is the main output of a Bayesian analysis and can be read directly as the probability of the hypothesis given the data, which is what a credible interval summarizes. Two studies starting from different priors can reach different posteriors from the same data, so understanding a posterior means knowing which prior produced it.
This is a plain-language methodology definition for reading research. It is general education, not medical advice.